FAQ — Two Corner Timing

Frequently Asked Questions *

What does Two Corner Timing offer?

Our market timing signals are our entire product - you get our view on which way the Nasdaq 100 is expected to move tomorrow. After signing up, you will be notified of all signal changes and have access to the members-only "Current Signal" page that tells what the next signal is likely to be.

What does Two Corner Timing not offer?

We will not attempt to tell you why the market is likely to move in a particular direction or offer any commentary about the market or the world at large. We also offer no personal investment advice or recommend any specific transaction. Such advice can only be given by investment advisors, as governed by the SEC. We are a market newsletter, as governed by the First Amendment. As such, we can only offer our general opinions. That those opinions come from a mechanical model changes nothing.

Subscription Questions ...

How much does your service cost?

For the first month, nothing.
Subscriptions are $50 per month after a one-month free trial. Annual subscriptions are $500 per year, also after a one-month free trial. You will not be charged until after the trial period ends, and you have confirmed your subscription.

Are the signals available to professional money managers / investment advisors?

Yes. In order to share our signals with anyone outside your immediate family, you need a professional account. Contact us for details.

Do you offer managed accounts?

Not at this time. Managed accounts were an option in the past, and will likely be added again if there is sufficient interest, so if you're interested it wouldn't hurt to ask!

How do I cancel my account?

Canceling an account is as easy as it should be. Simply select "Cancel subscription" on the "My Account" page (after entering your password to enable editing the subscription). Also, your trial subscription will automatically cancel if you do not confirm that billing should commence (we'll remind you). If you would like your account information to be removed entirely from our site, contact us and we can do that for you.

Can I get a refund?

If you cancel within the trial period, you will not be charged. After that, all service will be billed in advance. While you're free to use the service for the remainder of your term, no pro-rated refunds will be given for partial months (or years).

What is your referral program?

If you refer a client to us, you will receive a free month of service if they stay on past the trial period. They just need to mention your name when they create their account, and you will be credited after they make their first payment.

Trading Questions ...

What do the signals mean?

All of our signals are related to the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX). A LONG signal indicates the index is expected to rise and you should buy something that reflects the performance of the NDX. A SHORT signal indicates the index is expected to fall and you should either sell short something that reflects the performance of the NDX, or buy something that reflects the inverse performance of the NDX. A CASH signal says nothing about the future direction of the index (somewhat different from a prediction that it will stay still), and recommends that you close whatever LONG or SHORT position you may be in at the time. The signals do not indicate how strong the predicted movement may be, or how long the signals may last.

How will I be notified of a new signal?

New signals are generated every day at market close. You will be emailed new signals at that time, or you may choose to receive a preliminary signal before then. Preliminary signals may not agree with the final signal but may be more convenient for trading. You may elect to also receive emails even when the signal doesn't change. The current signal is also displayed on the site when you're logged in, as are candidates for the next signal. The "Current Signal" page in the members' section has more detailed information about the upcoming signal.

Some models (Composite and Aggressive) also produce signals for the market open. These are mailed out well in advance, just after the previous day's close.

When should I trade a new signal?

Generally as soon as practical, and never past the morning after the signal is issued.

What stocks or funds do you recommend?

It's not our place to recommend specific securities, but see the How To Use page for some of the suitable possibilities.

I've just subscribed. Should I trade immediately on the current signal, or wait until the next change?

If a signal doesn't change, it's considered to have been re-issued, and is just as valid as when it was "new". So it's best to immediately enter the signal given at the close, whether it has changed or not. But if you choose not to, that's fine - these are quick systems and a new signal is bound to come very soon.

Should I bail out of a losing signal?

No. Even signals that are currently losing are more likely to be right than wrong in the future. If there was a consistent advantage to exiting losing signals in the middle, it would already be part of our model. It isn't.

Do you employ stop losses? Should I?

Part of the Quick model is a "feedback loop" on the current signal, but that's not the same as a regular stop loss. Stop losses only hurt performance and should not be used. While Composite lacks this particular feedback, it also has been shown not to be helped by stop losses. While it can be frustrating to sit and watch a particularly bad drop, it doesn't feel any better to suffer a drop, and then watch it recover after being stopped out.

I see the signal is going to trade today. Should I trade early?

The information provided on the projected signal changes only applies to the close, and should not be acted on until then (or somewhat before then for practical trading considerations). Even when the next signal is known to be different from the current one (which is sometimes the case) you should wait until the close.

What do I do if I've missed a trade?

If you miss one day, just follow the signal the next day. If you have the chance to follow the signal mid-day, you'll have to use you own judgement, taking into account trading cost and whether it would prevent you from properly trading a later signal change.

I'm trading at the next day's open and the market has already made a sizeable move. Should I sit this one out?

Backtests of opening trading have shown that you're still better off following the signal when you've "missed" an overnight move in your favor. Likewise, you're better off following the signal when you've "escaped" an overnight move that would have been against you. Either way, ignore the change and just place the trade.

I'm not comfortable with shorting. Isn't it risky?

Shorting, making money when the markets are down, has gotten a bad rap. It's seen as riskier than a long investment, as well as somehow nefarious. While shorting individual stocks does have some unique risks, a short position in an index like the Nasdaq 100 is actually less risky than a long one. The market tends to drop faster than it rises, and you never hear about markets crashing up. Still, if you don't want to go short, you have the option of running the signals long-only.

Questions about the timing models ...

How are the signals generated?

Each day after the market close, our propietary models are run on price and volume data from the Nasdaq 100 index. This generates a set of possible signals for the next close, which in turn depend only on the closing price of the Nasdaq 100. This is a 100% mechanical method, and is never overridden by human meddling.

How often does the system trade?

These are very active models. The main Composite and Quick signals change on average every three and a half days, or roughly 72 trades per year.

What happened to your listing on TimerTrac?

Since 2006-09-19, our Quick signal has been tracked by TimerTrac.com, the industry standard for verifying market timing signals. More recently, our other signals have also been tracked. We believed, and still do, that the TimerTrac "medallion" is the premier sign of a timing signal that does what it claims to do. But since Two Corner Timing was closed to retail accounts for the last few years, there was no longer a reason to have it tracked for the world to see — a world that could see the signals but not receive them. Now that Two Corner Timing is again open to customers, we have returned to tracking the original signals. Unfortunately the missed time cannot be back-filled and a hole remains.

How much of your performance is based on actual trades, and not just backtesting?

Our original Quick model was developed during 2005-06, and was "fixed" in the summer of 2006. We use the first TimerTrac submission date as the official point at which the system moved from "backtested" to "live". Our newer Composite model was developed during 2016, and was "fixed" at the beginning of 2017.

Both of the original signals have variant systems with later start dates, all of which are noted in their data on the Performance page.

I see that 2007 was a bad year, then you took off in 2008. What did you change?

No mechanical system is perfect, and 2007 was indeed a hard year for many market timers. Still, it's a good thing when even a bad year offers a small gain. This turned out to be only a temporary lull in our model's success; things picked up again in 2008. The change was entirely in the market - nothing was done to the Two Corner Timing model to account for this.

So you never change your model?

Right. We're proud of our published track record, and it would be meaningless if it were the record of anything besides the signal we sell. There's always the possibility of finding some new ideas in the future, but that would only lead to offering a new signal, not changing the one we already have.

You used to be so much better. What happened?

The short answer is it's impossible to tell. Quick had a couple years of real-time performance in the high double digits, just like its backtests had. Then in 2009, it started doing no more than tracking the Nasdaq 100. And then in 2013, it started doing nothing much at all. Will it get better again? Probably, when the markets get nasty again. But that's just conjecture.

The new signals, Composite and Aggressive, are designed for this new reality. The goal used to be returns that came near doubling every year. The more modest current goal is to get no more than what the market gives, but to do it with less risk.

Why are there so many signals? Which one should I use?

Mostly, this is about variants derived from our original Quick model — Composite and Aggressive aren't such an unwieldy array of choices. In the interest of providing our customers with the most complete choices for their investing needs, we offered different variants of our timing model, all ultimately derived from the same basis as Quick. Most could be removed by now, but remain because they are still of interest to current customers. See the Our Model page for details on the different variants available.

For the current market environment, Composite and Aggressive are the signals to follow.